Will America Always Be A World Power?
"American global hegemony is now a fact of life. No one, including America, has any choice in the matter...Eventually, even if not soon, America's global dominance will fade. It is therefore not too early for Americans to seek to determine the shape of their hegemony's eventual legacy."
- Zbigniew Brzezinski, former Carter National Security Advisor
(Part 2 of a 3 part series)
In his renowned essay, "The Fate of Empires", Sir John Glubb, wrote about what he called "the lives of empires", which he calculated to live approximately 250 years.
His motive was to try and help preserve prosperous, leading nations. He felt if governments could understand patterns in the history of world empires and what caused them to fail, that maybe future world leaders would begin to avoid the things that eventually lead to the downfall of their predecessors.
This November, America will elected it's 45th President. We all know that America is in deep financial, social, educational and moral trouble. All agree that our current condition is unsustainable.
In my lifetime (I'm a Baby Boomer) I can't recall our country EVER being in a worse condition. I'm sure the generation before mine that experienced the Great Depression felt the same way. For those of us born in the 40's, 50's and 60's, we have enjoyed a relatively prosperous, safe and fun existence as Americans. But all that changed on 9/11. It's been eleven years ago, and at this point in time, things are not getting better.
The "normal" American people-those of us who live in the real world-know it's not a matter of Republican or Democrat. We're bored with the meaningless, petty rhetoric that both parties blame the other with. And please spare me another politician who declares he/she is going to "fight" for me. That type of posturing and mind-set is the problem. What we need are politicians who do less fighting and more leading in a Bi-partisan manner.
We are definitely at an important, I would say, historic, fork in the road in our nation's history. Who can doubt that we need better leadership?
The question is - Will our President be able and willing to learn from history and avoid the same mistakes of their predecessors that led to the downfall of other great nations?
Let's take a look at this study of world empires and see how we measure up and what we can learn as the current lone super power in the world.
I have broken down the essay and tried to highlight the things that I felt were most relevant for you to compare and draw your own conclusions as to the State of our Union in relation to this study.
"The Fate of Empires" - By Sir John Glubb
(This essay was written in 1976)
"...the duration of empires does not depend on the speed of travel or the nature of weapons. The Assyrians marched on foot and fought with spears and bow and arrows. The British used artillery, railways and ocean-going ships. Yet the two empires lasted for approximately the same periods...
"There is a tendency nowadays to say that this is the jet-age, and consequently there is nothing for us to learn from past empires. Such an attitude seems to be erroneous...
"Today we attach immense importance to the ideology of our internal politics...It is, therefore, interesting to note that the life-expectation of a great nation does not appear to be in any way affected by the nature of its institutions...
"Past empires show almost every possible variation of political system, but all go through the same procedure from the Age of Pioneers through Conquest, Commerce, Affluence to decline and collapse."
1. 250 years emerges as the average length of national greatness. This average has not varied for 3,000 years.
The Age of Pioneers
The Age of Conquests
The Age of Commerce
(I left out commentary on these first three only to cut down on the amount of text and because I felt a review of those periods of our history were not as relevant for our purposes here. Again, if you want the whole document, just Google, search, and you shall find.)
The Age of Affluence:
Which Stage of "The Fate of Empires" Would You Say America's In?
If we're being honest, it would seem we're definitely in the stage of affluence and decadence as described by this study of world empire history. It's amazing how history does repeat itself because mankind refuses to learn from history - or is unable to help himself from the things that prosperity tempts him with that have lead to the downfall of others.
What the above study is addressing is the cumulative effect of a political culture over at least a 200 year (or more) span. The Fate of Empires study gives us more of a Macro-view of a nation; a perspective of the landscape from 30,000 feet in the air. A birth, youth, adolescent, adult, and death historical life cycle. And I just wonder if our elected leaders are even looking from this perspective or aware of the internal condition of their patient?
To be fair, it's unrealistic to expect any one President, even if elected to two terms in office, to undo or unravel a political culture that has been stitching itself together for generations. That said, and given our current national condition, our leaders over the past several decade have either been incompetent, had a hidden agenda, or just plain ignorant of history.
I mean, how in the heck did we get here?
A Call to Leadership
Given our tumultuous national and global politics, the 2012 election will be key in shaping the American legacy of global power and leadership at a key juncture within the prophetic time clock.
But there's another wave of change on the horizon in American politics at this historic time, and that is the transition of demographics where the minorities are becoming the majority-particularly amongst the Hispanic/Latino people:
"When Bill Clinton was elected president of the United States, about 3.7 percent of the electorate was Latino," according to Stanford political scientist Gary Segura. "In this election year, it will be just under 10 percent. So the votes more or less tripled. And when you have that many more people and that many more voters, they matter in more places." Segura calls it "demographic panic."
Moreover, Segura points out that the story no longer begins and ends in Florida, Texas, and California. "We are surprised to hear that Latinos count in places like Wisconsin," he says, "or Pennsylvania, or Virginia - places that we don't think of as Latino-intensive states but where there's a growing Latino population and a growing Latino electorate." - Interview by Gwen Ifil, PBS Senior Correspondent
As the Latino population continues to grow and shape life in America, I believe a baton of leadership is being offered to us right now. The question is - will we accept it? Can we Lead?
Moving from the margins to the mainstream hasn't been and won't be easy. It's a tough road ahead and what's needed for this journey of 21st century leadership in America are what I call "Heroes of Hardship".
1. Leadership is about taking responsibility. It's about taking action to do something about an undesirable situation and not just complain about it.
Any honest person in America knows that all minorities in this country have not gotten a fair share of opportunity. We all know that unqualified people have received and been promoted into positions of power and authority that they neither deserved nor were qualified for simply because of their race.
Latinos are no stranger to injustice, prejudice and discrimination. We accept that "white privilege" exists plain and simple and could go on listing the things that we could rightfully complain about. Nevertheless, complaining about something is never enough and we've been complaining as victims long enough.
We've acted like second stringers sitting on the bench, grumbling about why we should be playing, pointing out all the fumbles and mistakes of those on the field. We've complained that if "we were only given a chance" we could prove ourselves worthy of that starting position, that salary, that job. I've said it myself and heard it from plenty of other friends and relatives for years. But it's time for the "bench gripping" to end.
2. Our opportunity has arrived, our number has been called, and it's time to perform.
The real question is, do we really want in the game? Can we really play at the first-class level? Can we deliver in the clutch situations? Are we ready to play in the big leagues of life and leadership?
I believe we are and part of accepting the leadership challenge is embracing the following mind-set of "Heroes of Hardship":
These great leaders were willing to confront these obstacles on the field of life, overcome them, and become true Heroes of Hardship. Listen to the words of Nelson Mandela, a man who sacrificed his personal freedom for twenty eight years of his life as a political prisoner fighting to end the oppression and racism in his country:
"In life, everyman has two obligations - obligations to his family, to his parents, to his wife and children; and he has an obligation to his people, his community, and his country. In a civil and humane society, each man is able to fulfill both of those obligations. But in a country like South Africa, it was almost impossible for a man of my birth and color to fulfill both of those obligations. In South Africa, a man of color who attempted to live as a human being was punished and isolated. In South Africa, a man who tried to fulfill his duty to his people was inevitably ripped from his family and his home and was forced to live a life apart, a twilight existence of secrecy and rebellion...I did not in the beginning choose to place my people above my family, but in attempting to serve my people, I found that I was prevented from fulfilling my obligations as a son, a brother, a father, and a husband. In that way, my commitment to my people, to the millions of South African's I would never know or meet, was at the expense of the people I knew best and loved most."
You see, as we examine the state of our nation-it's easy to do it from the stands, from the sidelines-the margins of society. It's easy to blame those at the top and play the victim.
Mandela teaches us to let go of the victim mentality, end the blame game, and get over it for the good of others. Nelson Mandelas' story is a prime example of why we can no longer act like helpless minorities, incapable of overcoming our past and using it as an excuse to not take charge of our own destiny as a country.
Yes, this is an historic election and we're headed for some rough times. But we've been prepared for it by our hardships. Out of rough times - LEADERS ARE BORN, LEADERS ARE MADE, and leaders hear the voice of destiny, the voice of history and legacy calling them off the margins and into the mainstream of influence and leadership for this time of national & global transformation.
3. Affliction, Loss & Chaos A Good Thing for America's Future?
Maybe the only way America can get back on track is not to avoid tough times but to suffer through them. Maybe it would be good to "lose". Maybe our "salvation" lies in the path of more hardship, pain and turmoil...just maybe. Maybe we need to be like the person who doesn't look to change his ways until he hits rock bottom.
History teaches us that sometimes "affliction" is the best path to revitalization. Sir John Glubb concludes his study of The Fate of Empires with the following statement:
"But while despair might permeate the greater part of the nation, others achieved a new realization of the fact that only readiness for self-sacrifice could enable a community to survive....
In this manner, at the height of vice and frivolity the seeds of religious revival are quietly sown. After, perhaps, several generations (or even centuries) of suffering, the impoverished nation has been purged of its selfishness and its love of money, religion regains its sway and a new era sets in. 'It is good for me that I have been afflicted,' said the psalmist, 'that I might learn Thy Statutes.'
In his book, The Chaos Point - The World at a Crossroads, Ervin Laszlo
lays out his theory of how societies transform themselves:
"The transformation of society is not a chance-ridden haphazard process; chaos and systems theory disclose that it follows a recognizable pattern:
1. The Trigger Phase: Innovations in hard technologies bring greater efficiency and manipulation of nature for human needs.
2. The Accumulation Phase: Social and environmental relations bring higher levels of production, faster growth of population, increase in social complexity and greater impact on the natural environment.
3. The Decision Window: Changed social and environmental relations puts pressure on the established order, honored values, worldviews and ethics are questioned and society becomes unstable.
4. The Chaos Point: The status quo becomes unsustainable and the systems evolution tips in one direction or another."
"Now a single rule holds: We cannot stand still, we cannot go back, we must keep moving. There are alternative ways we can move forward. There is a path to breakdown, as well as a path to a new world...the Chaos point is likely to be reached on or around the year 2012...that date, according to the Mayan system, will mark a gateway to a new epoch of planetary development, with a radically different kind of consciousness."
4. December 21, 2012
This is where the Mayan 2012 Calendar and prophecy becomes very interesting. According to the Mayans, by December 21, 2012 we will be on our way to the next phase of our 21st century journey
The Mayan Prophecy speaks to political, spiritual, and prophetic, parallels that I think you'll find interesting and is the subject of my next and final article...watch your email for it
RRR
"American global hegemony is now a fact of life. No one, including America, has any choice in the matter...Eventually, even if not soon, America's global dominance will fade. It is therefore not too early for Americans to seek to determine the shape of their hegemony's eventual legacy."
- Zbigniew Brzezinski, former Carter National Security Advisor
(Part 2 of a 3 part series)
In his renowned essay, "The Fate of Empires", Sir John Glubb, wrote about what he called "the lives of empires", which he calculated to live approximately 250 years.
His motive was to try and help preserve prosperous, leading nations. He felt if governments could understand patterns in the history of world empires and what caused them to fail, that maybe future world leaders would begin to avoid the things that eventually lead to the downfall of their predecessors.
This November, America will elected it's 45th President. We all know that America is in deep financial, social, educational and moral trouble. All agree that our current condition is unsustainable.
In my lifetime (I'm a Baby Boomer) I can't recall our country EVER being in a worse condition. I'm sure the generation before mine that experienced the Great Depression felt the same way. For those of us born in the 40's, 50's and 60's, we have enjoyed a relatively prosperous, safe and fun existence as Americans. But all that changed on 9/11. It's been eleven years ago, and at this point in time, things are not getting better.
The "normal" American people-those of us who live in the real world-know it's not a matter of Republican or Democrat. We're bored with the meaningless, petty rhetoric that both parties blame the other with. And please spare me another politician who declares he/she is going to "fight" for me. That type of posturing and mind-set is the problem. What we need are politicians who do less fighting and more leading in a Bi-partisan manner.
We are definitely at an important, I would say, historic, fork in the road in our nation's history. Who can doubt that we need better leadership?
The question is - Will our President be able and willing to learn from history and avoid the same mistakes of their predecessors that led to the downfall of other great nations?
Let's take a look at this study of world empires and see how we measure up and what we can learn as the current lone super power in the world.
I have broken down the essay and tried to highlight the things that I felt were most relevant for you to compare and draw your own conclusions as to the State of our Union in relation to this study.
"The Fate of Empires" - By Sir John Glubb
(This essay was written in 1976)
"...the duration of empires does not depend on the speed of travel or the nature of weapons. The Assyrians marched on foot and fought with spears and bow and arrows. The British used artillery, railways and ocean-going ships. Yet the two empires lasted for approximately the same periods...
"There is a tendency nowadays to say that this is the jet-age, and consequently there is nothing for us to learn from past empires. Such an attitude seems to be erroneous...
"Today we attach immense importance to the ideology of our internal politics...It is, therefore, interesting to note that the life-expectation of a great nation does not appear to be in any way affected by the nature of its institutions...
"Past empires show almost every possible variation of political system, but all go through the same procedure from the Age of Pioneers through Conquest, Commerce, Affluence to decline and collapse."
1. 250 years emerges as the average length of national greatness. This average has not varied for 3,000 years.
- If we take 1776 as our birth date - America is 236 years old
The Age of Pioneers
The Age of Conquests
The Age of Commerce
(I left out commentary on these first three only to cut down on the amount of text and because I felt a review of those periods of our history were not as relevant for our purposes here. Again, if you want the whole document, just Google, search, and you shall find.)
The Age of Affluence:
- "There does not appear to be any doubt that money is the agent which causes the decline of this strong, brave and self-confident people. The decline in courage, enterprise and a sense of duty is, however, gradual."
- "The first direction in which wealth injures the nation is a moral one. Money replaces honor and adventure as the objective of the best young men."
- "Gradually, and almost imperceptibly, the Age of Affluence silences the voice of duty."
- "Indeed the change might be summarized as being from service to selfishness. ...the weakening of a sense of duty in the citizens, and the increase in selfishness and the desire for wealth and ease."
- "Another remarkable and unexpected symptom of national decline is the intensification of internal political hatreds. One would have expected that, when the survival of the nation became precarious, political factions would drop their rivalry and stand shoulder-to-shoulder to save their country."
- "True to the normal course followed by nations in decline, internal differences are not reconciled in an attempt to save the nation. On the contrary, internal rivalries become more acute, as the nation becomes weaker."
- "The Roman mob...demanded free meals and public games...athletic events were their passion...The heroes of declining nations are always the same-the athlete, the singer or the actor."
- "The works of the contemporary historians of Baghdad in the early tenth century are still available...They lamented also the corruption of the officials of the government and the fact that politicians always seemed to amass large fortunes while they were in office."
- "The people of the great nations of the past seem normally to have imagined that their pre-eminence would last for ever..."
- "That sentiments like these could be publicly expressed without evoking derision shows that, in all ages, the regular rise and fall of great nations has passed unperceived. The simplest statistics prove the steady rotation of one nation after another at regular intervals."
- "The Welfare State: The rights of citizenship are generously bestowed on every race, even those formerly subject, and the equality of mankind is proclaimed..."
- "University students received government grants to cover their expenses while they were receiving higher education."
- "The State likewise offered free medical treatment to the poor..."
- "The impression that it will always be automatically rich causes the declining empire to spend lavishly on its own benevolence, until such time as the economy collapses, the universities are closed and the hospitals fall into ruin."
- Too long a period of wealth and power
- Selfishness
- Love of money
- The loss of a sense of duty
Which Stage of "The Fate of Empires" Would You Say America's In?
If we're being honest, it would seem we're definitely in the stage of affluence and decadence as described by this study of world empire history. It's amazing how history does repeat itself because mankind refuses to learn from history - or is unable to help himself from the things that prosperity tempts him with that have lead to the downfall of others.
What the above study is addressing is the cumulative effect of a political culture over at least a 200 year (or more) span. The Fate of Empires study gives us more of a Macro-view of a nation; a perspective of the landscape from 30,000 feet in the air. A birth, youth, adolescent, adult, and death historical life cycle. And I just wonder if our elected leaders are even looking from this perspective or aware of the internal condition of their patient?
To be fair, it's unrealistic to expect any one President, even if elected to two terms in office, to undo or unravel a political culture that has been stitching itself together for generations. That said, and given our current national condition, our leaders over the past several decade have either been incompetent, had a hidden agenda, or just plain ignorant of history.
I mean, how in the heck did we get here?
A Call to Leadership
Given our tumultuous national and global politics, the 2012 election will be key in shaping the American legacy of global power and leadership at a key juncture within the prophetic time clock.
But there's another wave of change on the horizon in American politics at this historic time, and that is the transition of demographics where the minorities are becoming the majority-particularly amongst the Hispanic/Latino people:
"When Bill Clinton was elected president of the United States, about 3.7 percent of the electorate was Latino," according to Stanford political scientist Gary Segura. "In this election year, it will be just under 10 percent. So the votes more or less tripled. And when you have that many more people and that many more voters, they matter in more places." Segura calls it "demographic panic."
Moreover, Segura points out that the story no longer begins and ends in Florida, Texas, and California. "We are surprised to hear that Latinos count in places like Wisconsin," he says, "or Pennsylvania, or Virginia - places that we don't think of as Latino-intensive states but where there's a growing Latino population and a growing Latino electorate." - Interview by Gwen Ifil, PBS Senior Correspondent
As the Latino population continues to grow and shape life in America, I believe a baton of leadership is being offered to us right now. The question is - will we accept it? Can we Lead?
Moving from the margins to the mainstream hasn't been and won't be easy. It's a tough road ahead and what's needed for this journey of 21st century leadership in America are what I call "Heroes of Hardship".
1. Leadership is about taking responsibility. It's about taking action to do something about an undesirable situation and not just complain about it.
Any honest person in America knows that all minorities in this country have not gotten a fair share of opportunity. We all know that unqualified people have received and been promoted into positions of power and authority that they neither deserved nor were qualified for simply because of their race.
Latinos are no stranger to injustice, prejudice and discrimination. We accept that "white privilege" exists plain and simple and could go on listing the things that we could rightfully complain about. Nevertheless, complaining about something is never enough and we've been complaining as victims long enough.
We've acted like second stringers sitting on the bench, grumbling about why we should be playing, pointing out all the fumbles and mistakes of those on the field. We've complained that if "we were only given a chance" we could prove ourselves worthy of that starting position, that salary, that job. I've said it myself and heard it from plenty of other friends and relatives for years. But it's time for the "bench gripping" to end.
2. Our opportunity has arrived, our number has been called, and it's time to perform.
The real question is, do we really want in the game? Can we really play at the first-class level? Can we deliver in the clutch situations? Are we ready to play in the big leagues of life and leadership?
I believe we are and part of accepting the leadership challenge is embracing the following mind-set of "Heroes of Hardship":
- Racism and discrimination are realities we must live with, but we choose to move beyond self-pity.
- Playing on an uneven field is hard, but we still choose to compete.
- Playing without the breaks of the privileged is unfair, but we still choose to achieve our God-given potential.
- Playing with two strikes against us is challenging, but we choose not to strike out.
- Playing with extra emotional baggage is draining, but we choose to rise above emotion.
- Playing with one hand tied behind your back is awkward, but we choose to make the best of the hand we've been dealt in life.
These great leaders were willing to confront these obstacles on the field of life, overcome them, and become true Heroes of Hardship. Listen to the words of Nelson Mandela, a man who sacrificed his personal freedom for twenty eight years of his life as a political prisoner fighting to end the oppression and racism in his country:
"In life, everyman has two obligations - obligations to his family, to his parents, to his wife and children; and he has an obligation to his people, his community, and his country. In a civil and humane society, each man is able to fulfill both of those obligations. But in a country like South Africa, it was almost impossible for a man of my birth and color to fulfill both of those obligations. In South Africa, a man of color who attempted to live as a human being was punished and isolated. In South Africa, a man who tried to fulfill his duty to his people was inevitably ripped from his family and his home and was forced to live a life apart, a twilight existence of secrecy and rebellion...I did not in the beginning choose to place my people above my family, but in attempting to serve my people, I found that I was prevented from fulfilling my obligations as a son, a brother, a father, and a husband. In that way, my commitment to my people, to the millions of South African's I would never know or meet, was at the expense of the people I knew best and loved most."
You see, as we examine the state of our nation-it's easy to do it from the stands, from the sidelines-the margins of society. It's easy to blame those at the top and play the victim.
Mandela teaches us to let go of the victim mentality, end the blame game, and get over it for the good of others. Nelson Mandelas' story is a prime example of why we can no longer act like helpless minorities, incapable of overcoming our past and using it as an excuse to not take charge of our own destiny as a country.
Yes, this is an historic election and we're headed for some rough times. But we've been prepared for it by our hardships. Out of rough times - LEADERS ARE BORN, LEADERS ARE MADE, and leaders hear the voice of destiny, the voice of history and legacy calling them off the margins and into the mainstream of influence and leadership for this time of national & global transformation.
3. Affliction, Loss & Chaos A Good Thing for America's Future?
Maybe the only way America can get back on track is not to avoid tough times but to suffer through them. Maybe it would be good to "lose". Maybe our "salvation" lies in the path of more hardship, pain and turmoil...just maybe. Maybe we need to be like the person who doesn't look to change his ways until he hits rock bottom.
History teaches us that sometimes "affliction" is the best path to revitalization. Sir John Glubb concludes his study of The Fate of Empires with the following statement:
"But while despair might permeate the greater part of the nation, others achieved a new realization of the fact that only readiness for self-sacrifice could enable a community to survive....
In this manner, at the height of vice and frivolity the seeds of religious revival are quietly sown. After, perhaps, several generations (or even centuries) of suffering, the impoverished nation has been purged of its selfishness and its love of money, religion regains its sway and a new era sets in. 'It is good for me that I have been afflicted,' said the psalmist, 'that I might learn Thy Statutes.'
In his book, The Chaos Point - The World at a Crossroads, Ervin Laszlo
lays out his theory of how societies transform themselves:
"The transformation of society is not a chance-ridden haphazard process; chaos and systems theory disclose that it follows a recognizable pattern:
1. The Trigger Phase: Innovations in hard technologies bring greater efficiency and manipulation of nature for human needs.
2. The Accumulation Phase: Social and environmental relations bring higher levels of production, faster growth of population, increase in social complexity and greater impact on the natural environment.
3. The Decision Window: Changed social and environmental relations puts pressure on the established order, honored values, worldviews and ethics are questioned and society becomes unstable.
4. The Chaos Point: The status quo becomes unsustainable and the systems evolution tips in one direction or another."
"Now a single rule holds: We cannot stand still, we cannot go back, we must keep moving. There are alternative ways we can move forward. There is a path to breakdown, as well as a path to a new world...the Chaos point is likely to be reached on or around the year 2012...that date, according to the Mayan system, will mark a gateway to a new epoch of planetary development, with a radically different kind of consciousness."
4. December 21, 2012
This is where the Mayan 2012 Calendar and prophecy becomes very interesting. According to the Mayans, by December 21, 2012 we will be on our way to the next phase of our 21st century journey
The Mayan Prophecy speaks to political, spiritual, and prophetic, parallels that I think you'll find interesting and is the subject of my next and final article...watch your email for it
RRR
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